A mixed method approach to assess the impact of the young farmers scheme on structural change

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The low proportion of young farmers in EU farming systems is seen as an impediment to a competitive and resilient farming sector.

To address this issue, the CAP is a key policy instrument that supports young farmers to stimulate their establishment in rural areas. The most significant measure is the Young Farmer payment (YFP) of Pillar I. It supplements the basic direct payment given to EU farmers 40 years old and under. It consists of direct income support per hectare for a period of five years.

SUREFARM assesses the impact of the YFP on structural change, using a mixed method approach which has been implemented in two EU regions (the Altmark region in Germany and the Flanders region in Belgium) combining quantitative and qualitative methods

First, the impact of the YFP is estimated using the agent-based model AgriPoliS, which has been extended to allow for the simulation of the farm succession process based on regional data. Three scenarios were simulated and analysed: i) no young farmers payments ii) maintaining the current level of young farmers payments iii) doubling the current level of young farmers payments (as proposed by the European Council of Young Farmers (CEJA)).

Second, the AgriPolis model's simulation results were validated by regional stakeholders participating in a workshop organised in each of the regions. The workshop included a SWOT analysis with regional policy makers and experts for different policy scenarios for young farmer measures.

Finally, the participatory workshops were used to obtain a qualitative assessment of the YFP and to develop policy recommendations.

Deliverable 3.8 - Impact of the Young Farmers payment on structural change
Relevance for monitoring and evaluation of the CAP

This mixed method approach is very relevant for evaluating interventions targeting young farmers. The application of the AgriPolis model in the two case study regions proved it to be a useful tool to predict the utility of the YFP on farm structure. It also proved to align well with stakeholder’s perceptions of the policy.

The combination of the simulation model and the stakeholder assessment revealed that the YFP in Altmark (DE) and Flanders (BE) had little impact on young farmers’ decisions on whether to enter farming or not, due to several shortcomings with the YFP. For instance, many issues not covered by the policy need to be addressed to facilitate generational renewal, such as the perceived low social acceptance of agriculture, the workload, the uncertainty, and the incompatibility of farming as an occupation with modern expectations of work-life balance. Recommendations were also developed, suggesting that alternative approaches to supporting young farmers should address better the barriers to entry issue.

These findings offer an excellent example of how this mixed method can be useful for evaluating interventions for young farmers. Since the method helps provide evidence for policy making, based on simulations/predictions, it is pertinent for ex ante evaluations and ex post evaluations that feed into future policy design.

Although this approach has only been implemented in two case study regions, it may be replicated in other regions by following the same steps and provided there is data on typical farms of the region either in FADN or in national/regional statistical offices.

Last modification date: 
09/12/2021